Dealing With The Worst Case Scenario

The Worst Case Scenario (WCS) is the tendency for our brains to imagine the worst possible outcome from a situation. Here are a few examples:

Sitting an exam and thinking 'I will fail and never finish my degree'
Giving a presentation at work and thinking 'I will mess this up, people will refuse to work with me and I will get fired'
Going on a date and thinking 'They will think I'm an idiot, and I will die lonely and miserable'

Extreme stuff. But very common for people to think in this way. Thankfully, there are practical strategies to deal with this issue.

Why Brain, Why?

First, we must consider why our brain leaps to this extreme thinking.

Keeping us alive is the most important job our brain does. It prioritises this responsibility over everything else....for obvious reasons.

The brain, therefore, tends to take a 'better safe than sorry' approach to risk detection and responding. By imagining WCSs, your brain thinks it is being helpful by identifying extreme versions of all possible risks. This strategy forces your attention towards perceived threats, rather than less pressing activities (e.g., playing Candy Crush Saga).

Here is the key question to ask when considering the function of this thinking style:

'Is WCS thinking the BEST way to detect and manage potential threats?'

For most people, the answer is no. Largely because this method comes with greatly increased stress and anxiety. Running through multiple horrific outcomes for a situation is not particularly relaxing.

Here is the next question to ask yourself:

'What are the options for threat detection that do not result in excessive anxiety?'

Considering alternative strategies give you an escape route from WCS thinking.

Distorted Thinking

WCS thinking is actually an example of cognition gone off the rails. We often label illogical or inaccurate thoughts as heuristics, cognitive distortions or thinking errors. WCS comes from the distorted category called catastrophising. This cognitive phenomenon occurs when a person fears an extreme, negative scenario playing out for them.

WSC often represents additional distortions, such as fortune telling. This other thinking error occurs when we act as if we can predict the future.

We are all prone to various cognitive distortions. This is a fact of life no matter how clever you are. Spotting and responding to thinking errors is a helpful way to neutralise their negative effects.

Assess The Likelihood

We have already covered one tactic; considering the best strategy for threat detection and management. However, you have other options.

Your brain is likely thinking in terms of possibility, not probability.

Almost anything is technically possible. Or at least, you cannot rule out many things with 100% certainty. For example, you could get abducted by aliens today. Life evolved on Earth, so why not elsewhere given the effectively infinite nature of the universe?

However, how much would you wager if you had to put money on this happening? Chances are, you wouldn't bet the house on the spaceship arriving. We shouldn’t put too much effort into planning and mitigation if the probability is low.

Responding via probability-based thinking can be undertaken in other ways. For instance, these questions further delve into WSC likelihood:

Do I have concrete evidence for this WCS occurring?
How often has a WCS actually happened in the past?
Is there a more likely, less catastrophic outcome from this situation?

Calling out and challenging cognitive distortions embedded in WCS thinking is a helpful way to neutralise these thinking errors.

Plan For The Worst

Some people get relief from WCS thinking by assuming the worst, then making a concrete response plan. The logic here is that you may feel reassured knowing a set of coping instructions exist. This strategy can both reduce and increase anxiety, depending on the individual.

Here are the steps:

Write down the WCS in detail. Specific exactly what will happen, where, how, and involving whom.
Next, brainstorm all possible responses to the WCS.
Pick the most helpful responses and arrange them into a plan you can follow if disaster strikes.
File this plan away somewhere, then focus on some of the other strategies above.

If it works for you, great. If it makes you feel worse, then don’t use this tactic.

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Summary

Bad things occasionally can and do happen to people. However, WCSs often do not occur. This cognitive distortion is your brain's attempt to identify threats. But there are better ways to cope with threats.

By identifying and challenging thinking errors of this type, you can reduce the negative impact of WCS thinking when it does arise.

Feb 6 Dealing with Worst Case Scenario Thinking